🌱 Maui Nui: Crop Monitor

💧How Dry Was It This Year?

🔍 What You’ll Find In This Issue

✅ Community check-in! This issue highlights insights from local farms on Lāna‘i and a check-in with the Dept. of Ag, underscoring how one major storm shaped the year’s rainfall — and how farmers are adapting to drought with soil-building and water-capturing practices.
🌧️ How much rain fell this year? Continued deficits over Maui Nui, as compared to normal conditions.
💧How are the streams doing? Some streams on Maui are experiencing near record lows.
📍 Where is drought hitting hardest? While most of Maui County is in Moderate Drought, over 30% is in Severe Drought, with areas on Maui like Lāhainā, Kāʻanapali, and Ke‘alaloloa experiencing up to 13 consecutive weeks — showing the depth and persistence of current conditions.
💰 MCDOA Shared Opportunities: Join community-led conversations on June 16–18 to share your voice and learn from experts as Maui works toward a community-led vision for East Maui water management. Details at wikiwai.org

✅ Community Check-In:

What are you seeing in your Ahupuaʻa?

In this issue, we incorporate our community check-in within the newsletter.

🎯 Maui with Dept. of Ag.: We met with Dept. of Ag. in April 2025 to assess our priorities. They shared with us that rainfall information was important to agricultural stakeholders. So, this issue is about water and drought in the county.
💧 Lāna‘i at Michele’s farm: One winter storm in Jan./Feb. brought up to 4" of rain in her farm on Lānaʻi, making up nearly 18% of the year’s total rainfall on one farm — a major contribution during an otherwise dry year.
⛰️ Lāna‘i at Manna’s farm: During our September 2024 visits, Lāna‘i farmer Manna shared how ridge-and-furrow planting and composting are helping retain rainfall and support soil health amid drought.

🌧 How much rain fell this year?

“Normal” rainfall was based on the 1991–2020 average, using cumulative totals from May to April to align with Hawaiʻi’s wet season cycle. This 30-year baseline helps highlight how much this past year’s rainfall deviated from typical conditions.
Below, we show how departure from this “normal” from May 2024 to April 2025.

Widespread Deficits:

All regions across Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, and Maui experienced more than 12% below-normal rainfall.
Deep red areas show departures of greater than 33% up to 45% below normal, signaling dry conditions.

❗️Molokaʻi:

Halawa, Ko‘olau, Kona, and Pālā‘au all exhibit rainfall deficits exceeding ~30%.

❗️Lānaʻi:

Island-wide rainfall was 20%–32% below normal.

❗️Maui:

Western moku including Ke‘alaloloa, Lāhainā, Wailuku, and Ka‘anapali are among the driest (21-43% below normal).
Regions like Kula, Kahikinui, Honua‘ula, and Hāmākualoa also saw deficits but of varying degrees.
Even wetter windward moku like Hāna and Ko‘olau are showing shortfalls (21-34%) even if less than other areas.

✅ Community Check-In

Michele Weinhouse from Kapua's Farm Lānaʻi shared with us after the Jan./Feb. storm:

“On Lānaʻi, I registered 6" of rain in town, almost 4" on my farm near the airport and almost 2" at Kānepuʻu (the only dryland forest in HI) from the last storm.”

In many parts of Maui Nui, this single winter storm accounted for largest increase of the year’s rainfall. On this Lāna‘i farm, for example, almost 18% of all the rain came during that brief event — as shown in the chart below.

✅ Check-in here!

💧How are the streams doing?

Maui Nui stream flow conditions March 3, 2025

Photo from Daniel Dennison (State of Hawaii) of East Maui Nui streamflow conditions from March 3, 2025 courtesy of DLNR.

Streamflow offers a window into how drought plays out on the ground: not just how much rain fell recently, but how much water is still moving through the system that supports drinking water, lo‘i kalo, irrigation, and native streams.

🔬 How do we measure streamflow drought?

Each month, the USGS WaterWatch Monthly Streamflow map shows average streamflow conditions for the prior month, placing them in context with decades of historical data for the same month of the year.

📊 How did May 2025 compare to historical records?

The latest May 2025 USGS WaterWatch streamflow map (above) shows how widespread the low-flow conditions have become on Maui:

Normal (flows are between 25 and 75% of available May historical data):
- Molokaʻi: Hālawa Stream
Below Normal (flows are between 10 and 24% of available May historical data):
- Maui: Haʻipuaʻena Stream and Waiheʻe River
Much Below Normal (flows are below 10% of available May historical data):
- West Maui: Honokōhau Stream, Kahakuloa Stream, Wailuku River
- East Maui: West Wailuaiki Stream, Honomanu Stream, Nailiilihaele Stream, Honopou Stream
Dry (record low or approaching record lows):
- Maui: Hanawī Stream

These streamflow conditions reflect not only rainfall, but also groundwater contributions and upstream watershed health, making them important indicators of ongoing hydrologic drought.

⚠️ Maui Streamflows Near Record Lows

Note that this data is provisional and is subject to revision.

For Hanawī Stream, there’s 104 years of measurements — and this May was in the bottom of all those years.
This May, Honopou Stream experienced one of its lowest flows on record. Out of 112 years of May observations, only about three years were drier.

📍 Where is drought hitting hardest?

🔍 Latest Drought Conditions (June 3, 2025)

In the June 3, 2025 USDM update:

100% of Maui County is in some stage of drought.
Over 69% of the island is experiencing Moderate Drought (D1).
An additional 31% are under the Severe Drought (D2) designation.
No parts of the county are currently under Abnormally Dry (D0), Extreme (D3), or Exceptional (D4) designations.

These maps from the U.S. Drought Monitor, developed by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) with USDA and NOAA, reflect conditions based on precipitation deficits, soil moisture, and water supply indicators like streamflow and groundwater recharge.

🌾 What are possible impacts from different categories?

Drought Category	Examples of Historically Observed Impacts
D0: Abnormally Dry	- Corn quality declines; less water is available for irrigation - Hiking trails are noticeably dry with soil erosion
D1: Moderate Drought	- Concerns about fire danger increase - More bugs observed than normal - Pasture and crop growth is stunted; farmers are not allowed to use reservoir water for irrigation - Water levels decline; voluntary water restrictions are issued; reservoir levels are depleted in high elevations
D2: Severe Drought	- Fire danger is high - Pasture conditions are very dry/poor; cattle health is poor; protea, coffee bean, sugar cane crops struggle - Reservoir levels are low; springs are dried up; mandatory water restrictions are implemented
D3: Extreme Drought	- Fires spread rapidly; outdoor burn bans are implemented - Producers cull cattle, buy supplements and haul water for livestock - Sugar cane producer lays off many employees - Trees are dry and dropping leaves; feral donkeys move into populated areas - Water production is reduced
D4: Exceptional Drought	- Cattle die; cattle conception rates are reduced - Hunting areas and hiking trails may be closed due to increased fire danger - Specialty crops, orchards are dying - Surface water is severely impacted - Tree beetle populations decline

In the table above, we show examples of some of the historical drought impacts observed in Hawaiʻi [1-2].

🗓️ How many weeks under Severe Drought (D2)?

Although the majority of the county is in Moderate Drought (D1), about 31% of the county is under Severe Drought (D2). How long have these regions been experiencing severe drought?

The map above shows the number of consecutive weeks that areas of Maui County have remained in Severe Drought (D2):

Lāhainā, Ke‘alaloloa, Kāʻanapali, and Wailuku (Maui): Up to 13 straight weeks in D2 conditions — the longest streak in the county in the past few months.
Parts of Kahikinui (Maui): Holding at 11 weeks, signaling sustained stress.
Parts of Kaluakoʻi, Pālāʻau, and Kona (Molokaʻi) and Hāmākuapoko, Kula, and Honuaʻula (Maui): Now in their 8th week of consecutive severe drought.

Together, these maps highlight not just the presence of drought — but its depth and duration.

⏳What’s Next?

Drought Likely to Persist Through Summer

The latest Seasonal Drought Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (valid for May 31 to August 31, 2025) states that:

❗️Drought is predicted to persist across all of Maui Nui [3].

According to Managing Effects of Drought in Hawai’i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands [4], many of the practices already in use by local producers are key strategies for building drought resilience. These include:

Maintaining healthy, different pastures and managing grazing carefully.
Keeping soil covered to reduce evaporation, erosion, and aid recovery after drought.
Building soil organic matter in irrigated cropping systems.
Applying mulches to conserve soil moisture.
Growing biodiverse agroforestry systems with drought- and salt-tolerant species
Ensuring adequate water storage to support both agricultural and community needs
- ⚠️ Inspect plants, mulch, compost, and green waste for pests!
- ⚠️ Report invasive species sightings to 643-Pest.

✅ Community Check-In

In September 2024, we spent time with communities across Moloka‘i, Maui, and Lāna‘i to better understand how farmers and residents are experiencing and responding to drought.

One Lāna‘i farmer, Manna, shared insight into the adaptive practices being used on the ground.

In the photos below, Manna showed us how he was using alternating ridges and furrows to capture rainfall more effectively [5], while compost supports soil health [6]—two practical techniques for building resilience during dry times.

Photos from Ana M. Tárano in Lāna‘i with Hawaii Farmers Union United’s Lāna‘i Chapter President and farmer Manna.

💡 How has drought impacted you and your loved ones? Have you noticed an increase or a decrease in pests in your area?

Email us to share your experiences with other subscribers at atarano@asu.edu.

💰 Opportunities Shared through Maui County

We’ll keep you posted on upcoming opportunities from Maui County. Here is what’s in store this month!

Maui Community Conversations to Shape the Vision of the East Maui Water Authority: June 16-18, 2025

Maui community members are invited to join water resource and finance experts to help shape a community-led future for East Maui’s watershed.

The in-person community meetings, held from June 16-18, 2025 at multiple locations in East and Upcountry Maui, will bring together public and private sector leaders, researchers, local voices, and experts from Hawai‘i and beyond for interactive educational dialogues, community listening roundtables, and scenario planning. Maui residents are encouraged to attend one of the three in-person meetings and/or the one virtual/hybrid meeting.

Event Schedule and additional information is available at https://wikiwai.org/emwa-community-conversation-series/

Monday, June 16, 2025:

Ke‘anae Uka, Ke‘anae – Ke‘anae Community Members, 4:00 pm to 7:00 pm

Tuesday, June 17, 2025:

11am, Maui County Planning Department Conference Room – Hybrid Public Meeting (in-person and virtual)

5:30pm, Kula Community Center – Community Forum

Wednesday, June 18, 2025:

6:00pm: Haiku Community Center – Community Forum

These conversations are hosted by the East Maui Water Authority, Kula Community Association, Haiku Community Association, and Public Finance Initiative.

References

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?HI
Noel, M., Bathke, D., Fuchs, B., Gutzmer, D., Haigh, T., Hayes, M., Poděbradská, M., Shield, C., Smith, K. and Svoboda, M., 2020. Linking drought impacts to drought severity at the state level. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(8), pp.E1312-E1321. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0067.1
https://www.drought.gov/states/hawaii/county/Maui
Frazier, Abby G.; Deenik, Jonathan L.; Fujii, Neal D.; Funderburk, Greg R.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Giardina, Christian P.; Helweg, David A.; Keener, Victoria W.; Mair, Alan; Marra, John J.; McDaniel, Sierra; Ohye, Lenore N.; Oki, Delwyn S.; Parsons, Elliott W.; Strauch, Ayron M.; Trauernicht, Clay. 2019. Managing Effects of Drought in Hawai’i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands. In: Vose, James M.; Peterson, David L.; Luce, Charles H.; Patel-Weynand, Toral, eds. Effects of drought on forests and rangelands in the United States: translating science into management responses. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-98. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington Office. 95-121. Chapter 5.
https://www.fao.org/4/s8684e/s8684e04.htm
https://www.epa.gov/sustainable-management-food/benefits-using-compost#:~:text=Compost%20is%20a%20source%20of,and%20rainfall%2C%20inhibiting%20soil%20erosion.

❓Is this information helpful? Is there something more you think we could do? Is there someone we should talk to?

Reach out to us at atarano@asu.edu.

👀 What would you like to see?

We are happy to provide more detailed information that the community needs on a case-by-case, as approved by the community. Some of the previous values can be divided by your Ahupuaʻa or your zip code. You can email us at atarano@asu.edu to request information.

Have questions?

Visit our website for Frequently Asked Questions or email us at atarano@asu.edu.

Acknowledgements

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